Reimagining Multilateralism in an Era of Global Uncertainty

Ashraf Patel

South Africa faces a brave new world in 2026.

A quarter of a century has now passed since the UN declared the Millennium Development Goals MDGs. Sadly, the majority of African nations have not achieved their sustainable goals.  Even though we hosted a symbolically successful G20 in 2025, the disinvitation and barring of SA from the G20 in the USA in 2026 is a stark reminder of the disruptive geopolitical order today. South Africa has a range of options rooted in global South and solidarity settings. 

The end of USAID and PEPFAR and the confirmation of new US Ambassador to South Africa Leo Bozell III, a MAGA loyalist, is set to deepen the current trajectory of immense US pressure on South Africa. Last week, even Sweden announced an end to  development aid to four African nations, and is redirecting that money towards Ukraine. Official Development Assistance (ODA) as a percentage of GDP is in rapid freefall as the EU and UK increase military expenditures. 

These crises present opportunities to reflect and recalibrate.

Expanding our African outreach and rebuilding  trust

Since the dawn of democracy, South Africa has been seen as a ‘leader in Africa.  The New Partnership for Africa, NEPAD, in 2002, under the leadership of  Presidents Mbeki et al, anchored in a new African Union (AU) promised to free Africa from the ‘yoke of dependency’.

The opposite is happening. In the past decade, South Africa’s standing in Africa has steadily deteriorated and eroded for multiple reasons. The DRC – Rwanda war and our debacle and partisan intervention in that conflict has been frosty relations with parties involved.

South Africa was not a trusted mediator, ‘dropped the ball’ at huge taxpayers expenses and loss  of life. Because we had not exercised fair mediation, external actors- the US and Qatar seized the ‘mediation initiative’  and then immediately secured lucrative  mining deals. 

The current Sudan civil war and conflicts in Ethiopia- Eritrea  and Northern Mozambique and the  Jihadist insurgency in the Sahel presents major dangers to the viability of many African states.  Amidst declining UN budgets for  African peacekeeping, South Africa and other global partners can and must do more to ‘Silence the Guns’ as per the AU and UN mandate.

Broadening BRICS development and Green industrialisation opportunities 

For well over a decade, South Africa has had the prime advantage in being a core member of BRICS, which presents solid opportunities from the BRICS Digital industrial development, the pandemic platforms, to accessing infrastructure finance at the New Development Bank (NDB) etc.

With the BRICS Plus growth and new members, including Ethiopia and Egypt, and possibly Nigeria in 2026, SA  would have to fight harder for its share and agency within the BRICS bloc, which is now more contestable. Hence, additional diplomatic capital and outreach, and an expanded focus and commitment to the BRICS bloc are the best route towards green industrial development, multilateral reforms, peace and security capacity, and boosting our agricultural and health development. 

Advocating for genuine reforms of the WTO and IFIs 

While the G20 statements were idealistic,  the real ‘bread and butter ’is institutional reform. With the Trump trade and tariff wars set to continue in 2026, the need for a functional and fair WTO is crucial. Here, South Africa should expand its outreach within the G77 and the African Negotiating Group (AGN) to push for a deeper reform at the next WTO Ministerial in March 2026 in Yaounde, Cameroon. 

Already, the leading blocs are lobbying for narrow positions.

For instance, the U.S. voiced frustration that blockages in the consensus-based system were stopping members from joining Plurilateral agreements. These problematic deals allow groups of only interested members to strike deals among themselves, with an option for others to sign on.

The US is also pushing for ending the status of Most Favoured Nations (MFN), yet most nations are still in favour of the MFN system.  Reforms to the current WTO Investment Treaty and Agriculture Treaty are required with commitments to deepen development content and fair trade, especially in Agriculture.

The current impasse at the mega EU-Mercosur deal – with agriculture subsidies and dumping as the key issue again highlights that agriculture - and food security is still the centre of global trade agreements.  South Africa and Africa face the triple burden of high food costs, high debt, and low agricultural productivity, as well as modest land reforms. 

The shortcomings of the G20 on the IFI reforms and the failure of a ‘Debt deal for Africa’ are another area in which South Africa and Global South partners - the G77 et al can focus on. The need for increased special drawing rights SDRs and more quotas, as well as a global Cost of Capital Commission and affordable Green finance as per the UN COP 30 Belen declarations, are areas that need serious attention and that South Africa needs to focus on.

New nodes of multilateralism

The current global-regional conflicts and wars, and the failure of the  UN system to make peace, have seen the emerging  Middle powers - Colombia, Malaysia, Spain, and South Africa, et al, displaying remarkable leadership by advocating for the implementation of the UN Charter. 

The formation of the Hague group has been the new ‘bright green shoots’ of the international scene in 2025. High-profile cases at the Gaza genocide case at the ICJ and ICC have seen a new movement of responsible middle power states boldly calling for UN reforms, and in line with the UN Pact for the Future, which all nations states committed to. 

The various deepening contradictions emanating from the Israel-Palestine conflict, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and various civil wars and conflicts in Africa have shown deepening and diabolical contradictions and application of international law.

The unequal relations of brute power over international norms, the decline of development support, and ODA, create a more Orwellian and Hobbesian world order where only the strongest are allowed to survive. Here, the very foundations of the UN system are being tested. 

Is another world possible? If so, how will emerging middle powers co-shape and reimagine a new world order rooted in the principles of the UN Charter and Pact for the Future?

* Ashraf Patel is a Senior Research Associate at the Institute for Global Dialogue, UNISA.

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL, Independent Media or The African.